THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE JUST CONCLUDED COP 26 (GLASGOW) FOR AFRICA : WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AFRICA

The pragmatic optimism that pulled the globe together in 2015 to adopt the Paris Agreement was a good beginning that laid the foundation to finally iron out pending issues that prevented full, ambitious implementation of the agreement – which is what the Glasgow Climate Pact has achieved six years later. COP26 registered some notable achievements. For example, while the planet was on course to a dangerous 2.70 warming going into Glasgow, new announcements made during the conference could see warming this century limited to 2.40 C, or as little as 1.80 C if other such “commitments” from the private sector are included. In addition, parties agreed to revisit their commitments, as necessary, by the end of 2022 to put the planet on track for the safe 1.5°C warmings. The newsletter will cover all these implications in an African setting.

COP26 registered some notable achievements. For example, while the planet was on course to a dangerous 2.70 warming going into Glasgow, new announcements made during the conference could see warming this century limited to 2.40 C, or as little as 1.8o C if other such “commitments” from the private sector are included. In addition, parties agreed to revisit their commitments, as necessary, by the end of 2022 to put the planet on track for the safe 1.5°C warmings. To put this in perspective, estimates before the Paris Agreement in 2014 took the world to 3.70 C of warming this century. So, in the very short period from 2014 to 2021, predicted warming this century has fallen from 3.70 to as low as 2.40 or even 1.80. That is a very significant change. For the first time, the conference also agreed to phase-down unabated coal and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, all practical steps towards achieving the safe warming thresholds. And all this actuated in a manner that justly transitions economies to low emissions pathways.

The conference also finalized the “Paris Rule Book, “which explains the “how” of implementing the Paris Agreement. This covered key issues of cross-border collaboration in implementation that are covered under Article 6 and transparency & reporting on progress by all parties that had previously been contentious. On the critical finance issues, wealthy countries committed to doubling the collective share of adaptation finance within the $100 billion annual targets for 2021-2025. And to reach the $100 billion goals as soon as possible. Parties also committed to a process to agree on long-term climate finance beyond 2025. Implications for Africa but which way Africa? One fundamental fact is that climate change stressors did not stop even as the negotiations ended in Glasgow.

Africa continues to hold the unenviable position of being disproportionately vulnerable. For a region that has contributed least to the changing climate, accounting for only 2–3%, Africa is already heating up twice as fast as the rest of the globe, and 20 countries are already warming more quickly than the globe. By proportionality, the implication is that as the world crosses the safe target of 1.50 Celsius Africa could be approaching catastrophic levels of up 30 Celsius and with this, the escalation of socioeconomic misery that is already at breaking point is guaranteed.

This portends more bad news. Be it the 257million people experiencing hunger. The over 12million young people who need jobs every year that remain disenfranchised in unemployment. The up to 60million children are malnourished and costing the continent between 1.9% and 16% of its GDP. To a surge in vector-borne diseases like malaria. To increasing flood risks, where flooding costs between $10billion. Despite all these, another variable, the COVID-19 global pandemic, has been added to this equation of stressors This then means that Africa’s pace to build resilience must exceed the global average. The continent must aim for resilience building at least at twice the global pace. And this should follow pathways that unlock tangible socioeconomic opportunities – including food security, creating inclusive enterprise opportunities and competitive macro-economic growth. By this ensure a just transition of Africa’s communities to the low emissions development pathway.

What steps for Africa?

Already, the continent has taken steps to demonstrate this urgency. For example, the region was among the leading leaders in ratifying its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) commitments. Up to 98% of countries have ratified their 1st round Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that are now being built upon. This makes Africa the continent with the highest compliance rate. As countries submit second-round NDCs, already 37 countries have submitted revised NDCs, with 18 being highlighted for submitting stronger targets. Among these include Namibia, for example, which has set a target of emissions cut to the tune of 91% conditional & 14% unconditional. Ethiopia has set 68.8% conditional & 14% unconditional. Nigeria has set 47% conditional & 20% unconditional. Zimbabwe has set an emissions reduction target of 40%.

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